Evidence, Reasoning and Political Disagreement

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Evidence, Reasoning and Political Disagreement

Political disagreements often involve several different questions:

1. What are the relevant facts?
2. How reliable is the available evidence?
3. What moral principles should apply?
4. What policy is most likely to produce the best outcome?

This questionnaire explores the standards people believe should apply when evaluating
contentious political claims. It is not intended to establish agreement on any particular
political issue.

People may share similar moral principles while disagreeing about the available evidence,
the relative importance of competing values, the risks involved or the likely consequences
of different policies.

13 questions. Responses are stored anonymously for aggregate analysis.

0/13 answered

Question 1 of 13When assessing factual claims about society, crime, economics, public opinion or policy outcomes, how much weight should generally be given to systematic evidence compared with personal experience?

Much greater weight to systematic evidenceSomewhat greater weight to systematic evidenceEqual weight to bothSomewhat greater weight to personal experienceMuch greater weight to personal experience

Question 2 of 13Should the same standards of evidence apply to a factual claim regardless of whether it supports your political views, opposes them or has no clear political implication?

Definitely notProbably notUnsureProbably yesDefinitely yes

Question 3 of 13(Select all that apply) - Which factors should be considered when deciding whether a source is reliable?

The evidence and methodology it providesWhether its claims can be independently verifiedIts record of accuracyWhether it distinguishes facts from opinionWhether it acknowledges uncertainty or limitationsThe political identity of the person sharing itWhether its conclusion agrees with my existing viewsUnsure

Question 4 of 13When the available evidence is incomplete, disputed or difficult to verify, how appropriate is it to withhold judgment or express uncertainty?

1 - Completely inappropriate2 - Somewhat inappropriate3 - Neither appropriate or inappropriate4 - Somewhat appropriate5 - Completely appropriate

Question 5 of 13Can people reasonably accept the same factual evidence but reach different conclusions because they assign different importance to moral values, priorities or acceptable risks?

Definitely notProbably notUnsureProbably yesDefinitely yes

Question 6 of 13An individual story, interview or viral video may demonstrate that something has occurred. What can it establish about the broader issue?

That the issue may have occurred in at least one caseThat the issue is reasonably commonThat the issue is widespreadThat the issue was caused by a particular policyUnsure

Question 7 of 13When reliable population-level data conflicts with a compelling personal story, which should generally carry more weight when estimating how common an issue is?

The population-level data should carry much more weightThe population-level data should carry somewhat more weightBoth should carry equal weightThe personal story should carry somewhat more weightThe personal story should carry much more weightIt depends on the circumstancesUnsure

Question 8 of 13When assessing a specific factual claim or policy argument, does identifying an unrelated wrongdoing by a political opponent answer the original claim?

NeverRarelySometimesUsuallyAlwaysUnsure

Question 9 of 13When assessing a policy, how should its proponents’ intentions and its likely consequences generally be weighed?

Only intentions should matterIntentions should matter moreBoth should matter equallyLikely consequences should matter moreOnly likely consequences should matterUnsure

Question 10 of 13Before criticising another person’s political position, how important is it to first describe that position in terms they would recognise as reasonably accurate?

1 - Not at all important2 - Somewhat important3 - Unsure4 - Somewhat important5 - Extremely important

Question 11 of 13(Select all that apply) - Which behaviours, if any, can reasonably contribute to a negative judgment about how a person engages in political disagreement? Select all that apply.

Knowingly making a false claimContinuing to make a claim without addressing strong contrary evidenceApplying inconsistent standards to different political or social groupsKnowingly misrepresenting another person’s positionRefusing to acknowledge relevant uncertaintyNone of these behaviours alone is sufficient to judge someone’s characterUnsure

Question 12 of 13If credible evidence substantially contradicted one of your political beliefs, how willing would you be to reconsider that belief?

1 - Very unwilling2 - Somewhat unwilling3 - Unsure4 - Somewhat willing5 - Very willing

Question 13 of 13Which action would you be most likely to take first?

Examine the methodology and underlying evidenceLook for other independent sourcesLook for evidence supporting my existing positionConsider whether my position should changeQuestion the motives of the sourceDiscuss it with people who hold different viewsUnsure

About you (optional)

These questions help compare broad groups. Select only what you are comfortable providing.

Age Gender Sexual orientation

Country of birth

Not answered

Country of residence

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Residential area Citizenship or residency status

Cultural or ethnic heritage (select all that apply)

Not answered

American (United States) Native American Australian Aboriginal Australian Torres Strait Islander Māori Other Indigenous or First Nations heritage European Middle Eastern or North African South Asian East Asian Southeast Asian Sub-Saharan African Caribbean or Afro-Caribbean Pacific Islander Latin American or Hispanic Another cultural or ethnic heritage Prefer not to say